Maple Leafs Face $20M Mystery Following Adrian Kempe Deal in Los Angeles

While the UFA class for the summer of 2026 already appeared to be on the weaker side, it took another major hit today when the Los Angeles Kings locked up Adrian Kempe to an eight-year, $10.6 million extension.

What was once projected to be the strongest free-agent class in modern NHL history has rapidly dwindled into something far more underwhelming, and Leafs Nation isn't thrilled.

Not only has Connor McDavid already re-upped with the Oilers, but Jack Eichel has also signed a massive extension with the Vegas Golden Knights, and Kyle Connor has landed himself a sizeable deal with the Winnipeg Jets. Add Kempe to the list of stars re-upping, and it's left the free agent market in a weird space.

When July 1st arrives, the Maple Leafs are projected to hold just under $20 million in cap space, a rare luxury for a team that's fairly commonly been under a cap crunch.

With Bobby McMann, Calle Jarnkrok and Scott Laughton all on expiring deals on the UFA side, and only Matias Maccelli and Nick Robertson needing new contracts for the RFA side of things, even if they signed 3 or 4 of them, the Leafs wouldn't break the bank, and could conceivably still carry more than $10M in cap space on July 1st. But, with free agency drying up fast, the question becomes: who can they actually spend this cap space on?

The biggest name still projected to hit the market is Artemi Panarin. But, considering his age, his massive number, and a style that doesn't mesh with Craig Berube's identity, the odds of him landing in Toronto are slim.

Other more realistic options include Nick Schmaltz and Alex Tuch, both strong fits on paper. Schmaltz's situation remains quiet, while recent reports suggest Tuch is seeking $9 million or more.

If Schmaltz and Tuch end up being two of the bigger free agents, the bidding war it could create among teams with cap space to burn could dissuade the Leafs from getting involved.

On the blue line, the obvious prize would be Rasmus Andersson, if he makes it to market. That said, he's the perfect stylistic and positional match for the Leafs, and the interest, as we know, is already there.

If the top-end names disappear entirely, the Maple Leafs may have to pivot to using cap space to absorb bad contracts, which would allow them to collect draft picks or prospects as sweeteners. This could be a viable option to replenish their draft capital and improve their prospect pool. It might not be a bad strategy, as it will give them assets that they can move next year and beyond.

Obviously, this would be a tough pill to swallow for Leafs Nation, as next summer was originally expected to be fireworks in Toronto with so many potential game changers available at a time where the Leafs could actually afford any one of them.

Still, if the team does want to try to use their cap space to their advantage to leverage other teams into giving up picks or prospects, it might not be the worst decision, so long as they're not punting the ball too far down the road with time ticking on Auston Matthews' contract.