Concerning Max Domi contract projection not based in reality

On Friday, LeBrun dropped a report, suggesting that we could see Max Domi fall into the $5M-$6M range over a 6-year term with the Maple Leafs, which created quite the stir given the lofty AAV and lengthy term.

Now, a fellow writer for The Athletic, Kevin Papetti, is suggesting that Domi's contract won't be anywhere near LeBrun's estimate, much to the relief of fans in Leafs Nation. Why is he so sure? Well, for starters, Domi's recent contract history is a pretty good indicator as to how he's been valued around the league.

As Papetti points out, here are the last 4 contracts Domi has signed. A common theme here is low-term, and while he did eclipse the $5M AAV once in the last 4 sets of negotiations, his last 2 deals were well under that mark.

2018: 2 x $3.15M
2020: 2 x $5.3M
2022: 1 x $3M
2023: 1 x $3M

The son of the legendary Tie Domi was a welcomed addition in Toronto last summer and the common feeling among fans is that they'd like to see Domi stick around. However, after scoring just 47 points this season, a $5M-$6M AAV seems like a bit of an overprojection.

There's no question that Domi's value to the team this season exceeded the $3M he was paid, especially after finding a home with Auston Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi on the top line to end the season, but I don't know how much above $4M he'd really be worth as a 30-year-old.

Obviously, we'll see where this all goes, but I'm pretty certain that Domi will prioritize term over AAV for the sake of remaining a Leaf and playing at home into his mid 30's.