The problem that Nylander is going t have in seeking a $10M AAV or higher is that mostly every single market comparable is signed for less, with some having signed as recently as the last few weeks. Now, there's another one that we can add to the list in
Sebastian Aho, who is rumoured to be nearing an 8-year deal, which would carry a $9.5M AAV.
While Nylander did out-produce Aho last season, putting up 87 points to Aho's 67, the latter put up 81 points in 2021-22 to Nylander's 80 points in that same season. Aho also plays a premium position as a center, so that certainly comes into play as well.
In terms of goal production over the last two seasons, Nylander has tallied a combined 74 goals over 163 games played, while Aho has notched 73 goals in 154 games played, so the two are very close in that category. Aho's shooting percentage was also a lot higher at 16.5% to Nylander's 13.7%.
If Nylander was hoping to wait it out and see his comparables sign larger deals in hopes of inflating his value on the market, so far, it's not looking favourable for him. Perhaps signing a little quicker this summer could have earned him a few extra bucks on his deal. Now, if Aho does sign his rumoured deal, I just don't see how you can pay Nylander more than his $9.5M. Aho, as a top line center, making $9.5M would almost certainly reduce Nylander's market value.