Over/under projection for Leafs franchise winger Mitch Marner

Published August 24, 2023 at 9:11

Mitch Marner has always been a phenomenal playmaker, going back to his days with the London Knights, but in the past two seasons, he has also become a bigger threat for scoring goals. By shooting more, Marner has caused teams to second guess whether he will pass or shoot, which has led to a significant uptick in goals going from 16 in 2019-2020 and 20 in 2020-2021 to 35 in 2021-2022 and 30 again last season.

Since entering the league in 2016-2017, Marner's point totals have steadily increased and the past two seasons he came within 3 points and 1 point of reaching the 100-point plateau. Unfortunately, he was unable to attain that 1 point last season after Sheldon Keefe sat him for one of the Leafs' final two games, but would have flown past the mark in the 2021-22 season had he not missed 10 games.

Heading into this season, likely playing next to Auston Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi, Marner will finally look to break into the century club and with him riding shotgun on the Leafs' top line, odds makers believe Marner will do it. Odds makers have set the over/under for points by Marner this season at 99.5 and given that the past two seasons he has finished with 94 and 99 points, it should be a safe bet (see what I did there) that he tops 100 points for the first time in his career, so we definitely like the over here more than the under.

The two biggest reasons that should allow Marner to join the century club are due to his more balanced pass-shoot approach and that he plays in all situations for the Leafs, often leading them in ice time among forwards.

With that being said, there could be another reason why Marner reaches the milestone. He will be heading into the same situation that Mattthews was in this summer, negotiating an extension and heading into the final year of his current deal. There is no doubt that having a 100-point season will help him in negotiations and warrant a raise from his current $10.9M salary.

Will he top the $13M plateau, just as Matthews did yesterday? That remains to he seen, but Marner has evolved and is more dangerous than ever offensively, which means that he might just be worth it. Also, when we factor in the expiry of John Tavares' $11M AAV at the same time, there will be a whole lot more money for the Leafs to spend in 2025-26.
August 24   |   491 answers
Over/under projection for Leafs franchise winger Mitch Marner

Will Mitch Marner surpass the 100-point barrier this season?

Yes41083.5 %
No8116.5 %
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