Maple Leafs' Latest Loss Puts Them In Uncharted Territory For The First Time Since 2016-17

Sixteen games into the 2025-26 season and the Toronto Maple Leafs have been playing like a shell of their former selves right out of the gate.

The major concern coming into the year was whether or not they could replace Mitch Marner's offensive production, which they've done so with relative ease, as they're currently 5th in the league in goals.

William Nylander has been off to a torrid start with 23 points in 13 games and John Tavares and Matthew Knies are both over the 20-point threshold. Unfortunately, the major issues surrounding the Leafs' game are defense and goaltending, and it has only gotten worse.

Due to their abysmal start, the Maple Leafs are currently sitting in 6th place in the Atlantic Division, 12th in the Eastern Conference, and 22nd league-wide, which would put them in a spot they haven't been in since 2016-17 - outside of the playoff picture.

The Athletic's Dom Lucszczyszyn's model now has the Leafs' playoff chances at 48%, this after starting the season at 80%. As his graph shows, it's been a steady decline over the last few weeks, which has been duly noted by the leadership group and the head coach.

It might be early in the season, but they say that if you're not in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving, the odds are heavily against you as teams only continue to improve throughout the year. There are certainly examples that defy that logic, like Craig Berube's St. Louis Blues in 2018, but for the most part, it's pretty tough to make the playoffs if you dig yourself into an early hole.

The Leafs have been toiling in mediocrity to begin the season and if they are going to right the ship, it starts with tightening up defensively, making less mistakes with the puck, and shoring up their goaltending.

Their next few games should show us whether or not they have what it takes to battle adversity and get back on the right track when they face-off against the Boston Bruins tonight, followed by a home matchup against Los Angeles, and a road affair with Chicago to close out the week.