Leafs reporter reveals Mitch Marner's expected cap hit on his next deal

Mike Armenti
July 6, 2024  (11:22)

Mitch Marner
Photo credit: USA Today Sports

Mitch Marner appears more likely than ever to remain with the Toronto Maple Leafs and his expected cap hit doesn't appear to be as bad as originally feared.

Marner is among the very best at his position in the NHL, at least during the regular season. The main issue seems to be his mindset during those big game situations come playoff time.
Marner produced just 1 goal and 2 assists across a 7-game playoff series against the Boston Bruins in Round 1, which resulted in a lot of criticism from fans who fired up a campaign to have the Maple Leafs trade him this summer, despite the existence of his full no-movement clause.
Following the NHL Entry Draft in Las Vegas last week, new Leafs head coach Craig Berube expressed his excitement and a keen interest in coaching Marner next season, pointing to the overwhelming likelihood that Marner isn't going anywhere.
Marner is entering the final year of his 6-year deal, which paid him a lofty $10.9M per season, and as a result, he is in need of an extension so the Leafs don't walk him straight to UFA next summer.
There are a number of factors that could come into play during these negotiations, so it's not expected that an extension will be hammered out quickly. This one could take some time, but when all is said and done, according to The Leafs Nation's Jon Steitzer, Marner's cap hit is likely to fall in the same percentage range as the Elias Pettersson deal in Vancouver, which is 13.89% of the cap, or in the $12.2M range under the current $88M salary cap. As Steitzer also pointed out, that number would jump to $12.4M per season with next year's salary cap expected to reach $93M.
There is some concern that with Marner's agent, Darren Ferris, being notorious for walking his clients to free agency to maximize their earnings, but if Marner wants to avoid an ongoing media circus all year long, he'd be better served to sign before the season begins to avoid all of the incessant questioning that he seems to despise so much.
In the end, a $12.2M-$12.4M cap hit wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. It does fall into that range between William Nylander's $11.5M AAV and Auston Matthews' $13.25M AAV.
The main issue people seem to have right now is that the Leafs weren't able to win with this core making less money. It seems like a silly proposition to suggest that they will suddenly win when they're making more money, leaving less to go around elsewhere on the roster.
Thankfully, John Tavares and his $11M salary will come off the books next summer, so that should open up a lot of possibilities for the Leafs of they decide to walk away from their captain. Still, the idea of paying Marner more than $12M per season is somewhat concerning for fans regardless of what next summer holds.
Source: The Leafs Nation
What a Mitch Marner Contract Extension Could Look Like
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Leafs reporter reveals Mitch Marner's expected cap hit on his next deal

Does Mitch Marner deserve to carry a $12M+ AAV on his next deal?

Yes, it's his market value44641.3 %
No, he's not even worth the money he's making now63458.7 %
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