Analyst reveals why the Leafs want to avoid arbitration date with Ilya Samsonov at all costs
As we prepare for the flurry of activity we will inevitably see at the end of this week surrounding the Leafs goaltending situation, Ilya Samsonov's representatives and Leafs GM Brad Treliving are still working on hammering out a deal. The Leafs want Samsonov to stay in Toronto. Samsonov wants to stay in Toronto. The best possible outcome here is that both sides come to an agreement before they have to make a case against each other in front of an arbitrator.
Arbitration hearings can be a nasty business, players and their representatives have to argue why they're worth the money they're asking for. Management has to argue that they're worth less. Feelings get hurt, confidence gets shaken, and relationships sour. These points were emphasized by Former Leafs executive and current analyst Dave Poulin on Wednesday during an appearance on TSN 1050's First Up.
"I dont think he gets to arbitration. Not many guys do. The last high profile one was PK Subban. People don't wanna go there. A lot of this falls on the agent to prepare the player that when the team says this about you, it isn't personal... There's gonna be some mean things said. I think ideally you want more than a year. You want to solidify the position if you believe in Samsonov. I think the Leafs want to solidify the position. If they feel that Samsonov and Woll is the combination, then I would think they want at least 3 years." - Dave Poulin on Ilya Samsonov and the Leafs
Another key point brought up by Poulin is the term of the contract. Arbitration awards only carry a term of 1 or 2 years. Because Samsonov is a UFA next summer, his arb award this year can be only 1 year at maximum. If the reports we've gotten are to be believed, Samsonov would prefer a 4-year deal. The Leafs would also prefer something shorter-term, believed to be in the 2-3 year range.
The solution, as I see it, would be a 3-year deal, around $3.5M-$4M per season with as large amount of money up front through signing bonuses as possible to keep his actual salary low. This gives Samsonov money up front that he can invest in order to make up the difference. It would give the Leafs a level of stability in net that they haven't had since the early years of Frederik Andersen's tenure. Settling on a deal before the hearing is by far the best outcome for both the player and the team.
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